Load shedding - what’s the solution?

By the end of August, South Africa’s load shedding tally for 2022 was a staggering 91 days, of which 43 instances were at Stage 2. For the first time since December 2019, load shedding had escalated to Stage 6.

Last year was the worst load shedding year on record, and 2022 will top this, according to the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).

Consumer frustration is rising, and civil organisations are pushing Eskom and the government to take decisive action. We find out what Eskom’s approach may be, and what households can expect over the next few years.

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Eskom’s capacity gap

Sikonathi Mantshantsha, national spokesperson for Eskom, says that South Africa is currently short of 4,000-6,000MW of generation capacity.

To address the shortage, President Cyril Ramaphosa is encouraging the private sector to step in, allowing generation facilities to sell up to 100MW without needing a licence to do so, along with fast-tracking environmental approvals.

Mantshantsha says that the government has also made it easier for Eskom to spend more on maintenance, and to procure directly from equipment manufacturers, which should reduce breakdowns at older-generation plants.

Eskom has made land available for renewable energy projects at some of its coal-fired power stations in Mpumalanga, via commercial lease. In the first phase of this project, investors will fund projects for 1,800MW of generation capacity, which should start feeding into the grid within 18 to 24 months from commencement of construction.

“These measures will introduce generation capacity to take care of the current deficit over time, reducing the need for load shedding,” Mantshantsha says.

There are some promising measures in the mix, says Yusuf Coovadia, a renewable energy consultant at Maverick Energy Consulting. However, the government rather than Eskom should be responsible for increasing capacity.

“South African taxpayers, via the government, took a bet on Eskom with the construction of Medupi and Kusile - and lost,” he says. “What would be the benefit of Eskom providing generation capacity, especially as private developers could do it more cheaply and quickly? They also carry the risk for constructing and operating those assets.”

“I would like to see Eskom working to improve the grid’s capacity and ideally leave new generation capacity to others,” he says.

Chris Yelland, managing director of EE Business Intelligence, says Eskom has repeatedly shown it is not up to the task of providing enough electricity. In addition, he doesn’t think that Eskom’s strategy is clear.

“Despite announcements by government and Eskom, it’s still not entirely clear what the utility proposes,” he says.

“Government seems a bit cagey, going step by step without sharing the full picture – probably because of possible kickbacks by forces that benefit from the status quo.”

Steps towards a solution

Yelland predicts it will take around a decade to reach energy efficiency, provided Eskom can combat corruption at the power utility.

“Reactionary elements, such as trade unions, are standing in the way of progress as the status quo allows them to fill their pockets to the detriment of the country,” he says. “These forces must be stopped if we want to end the electricity crisis.”

Yelland says there are steps Eskom can take that will put it on the road towards resolving the situation.

“For Eskom to succeed, the power distributing process should be simplified. Distribution should be taken away from municipalities and transferred to a few distributors who can work efficiently,” he says.

“Eskom must also cut the fat from its operations and create a smaller, more efficient workforce. It needs engineers who are up to the challenge, and there must be an end to inflated salaries.”

In addition, Eskom should move away from coal toward different sources of electricity. Coovadia says cheap renewables, coupled with storage technologies such as batteries and hydrogen, will help.  

He says Eskom’s ageing coal fleet has performed worse than the government expected and operates below international standards.

“In the medium term, batteries could help as they would take some of the morning and evening power demand peaks, and could do it more cheaply than Eskom’s diesel generators,” he says.

Removing licensing requirements will help to narrow the gap between supply and demand, but the grid will only stabilise once private projects are up and running.

This could take between two to three years, Coovadia predicts.

He says breaking Eskom up into three different operating units is a promising step, as is creating an independent system operator (a body that buys and sells power, like a stock exchange for electrons).

“If private companies can buy and sell electricity it would incentivise independent power producers (IPPs) to build merchant plants and generate electricity for others to buy,” he says.

What Eskom needs to do

Coovadia says Eskom needs to focus on what is within its control.

It should increase the availability of its coal fleet and make it easier for private parties to move (i.e., wheel) power on its network. “Eskom is getting better at negotiating wheeling arrangements with private players in the market, and that is a positive step,” he says.

These steps could have an immediate impact, although other strategies may take longer, such as dealing with sabotage and corruption. Doing so would improve the performance of the coal fleet.

Another issue is the fact that South Africans are not getting access to the cheapest electricity.

“That carelessness sits with the government,” says Coovadia. “It should not be promoting technologies like coal, nuclear and gas over other options. Let the mix be determined by power system requirements and cheapest cost to the taxpayer.”

There is hope for resolution in the long term, says Coovadia – but this is cold comfort for South Africans who have been struggling with load shedding since 2007.

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